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The Story: The global economy was supposed to see a recession in 2023. But so far, it hasn’t.

Despite a banking closure crisis, rising interest rates, geopolitical tensions, and efforts to curb high inflation, the economy has been consistently durable. And the US economy specifically has actually shown growth this year, boasting the addition of about 240,000 jobs each month on average, and a two-year high for overall economic growth in Q3.

Now as 2024 approaches, investors are looking ahead. Several have offered varying projections for how the global economy will fare in the new year.

There are some who are optimistic. Goldman Sachs writes in its outlook that, “2024 should cement the notion that the global economy has escaped the post-[Great Financial Crisis] environment of low inflation, zero policy rates and negative real yields." The firm also projects only a 15% chance of a recession in 2024.

And then there are those who are less optimistic. Economists at Wells Fargo predict in their 2024 outlook that, “the U.S. economic outlook over the next year or so is far from sunny. A full-blown economic storm may not develop, but storm clouds likely will dominate the horizon for the foreseeable future.”

Expert Take: Cameron Peake, partner at Restive Ventures, believes 2024 venture markets will make a long-awaited comeback, but could be slightly deterred by the prospect of interest rate hikes: “I would imagine that 2024 is going to gear up to be a big year for VC fundraising. And so I think some of the capital flowing in is going to be negatively impacted by an [interest rate hike] environment.”

Peake worries we could see the current banking crisis extend into 2024. She says, “We’re continuing to see those ripples emerge from the FED hiking rates so quickly, and I don’t think we’re out of the woods yet.”

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